[vc_row][vc_column][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner el_class=”intro-section” width=”5\/6″][vc_column_text el_class=”h5-hd”]<\/p>\n
[\/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text=”Anticipate the future behaviour of the system” font_container=”tag:h3|text_align:left|color:%23c20e1a” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1\/6″][vc_icon icon_fontawesome=”fas fa-file-download” color=”white” background_style=”rounded” background_color=”custom” align=”right” custom_background_color=”#edbe16″ link=”url:%23|title:Download%20this%20step” el_class=”download-btn”][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row el_class=”bordered”][vc_column][vc_column_text]Systems thinking is the ability to describe and\/ or visualise a part of a complex reality<\/a>, express that part of reality as a model, understand the model as a system, use the model to explain the behaviour of the system, anticipate the behaviour of the system<\/a>, and evaluate its impacts on sustainable development, identify potential points of, and types of interventions, generate options to act, assess their impacts in the frame of sustainable development, and decide whether further actions are necessary or not.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n In the previous Step, learners explored the past behaviour of the system. In this Step, with the help of the developed systems model, the learners can make forecasts or projections of \u00a0future situations of the chosen topic. The projections are determined by the constituent elements, interrelationships, and drivers including external stimulations and internal feedback loops. For example, weather models used by meteorology departments can provide a weather forecast for a region tomorrow, or the next few days.<\/p>\n .[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n To enable learners to<\/p>\n [\/vc_column_text][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1\/2″][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n Step 5: anticipate, evaluate impact<\/p>\n [\/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”1660″ img_size=”full” alignment=”center” style=”vc_box_shadow” onclick=”link_image”][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n In Step 4, learners developed explanations of the past and recent behaviour for selected elements of the system. In this Step, the learners use their understanding of the behaviour of particular elements within the system, as well as the dynamism of systems as a whole, and apply it to anticipate the future behaviour of the system.<\/p>\n Learners can use Understanding Causation\u00a0as a preparatory activity. \u00a0The Scenario Analysis\u00a0method is helpful for imagining the behaviour of multiple elements and more or less the whole system. The results of the Scenario Analysis\u00a0may be represented in the form of a slide show, a series of charts or an Explainer Video\u00a0or podcast.<\/p>\n Finally, the learners should develop:<\/p>\n Learning methods suggested are:<\/p>\n [\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n Illustration of staircase model for further leading questions <\/strong>[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n [\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n Step 5 in the Jeans example<\/p>\n1. What does this mean?<\/strong><\/h6>\n
2. What is the aim?<\/strong><\/h6>\n
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3. Potential for competencies enhancement in this step<\/strong><\/h6>\n
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4. Activities, tasks and suggested learning methods<\/strong><\/h6>\n
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5. Conclusion<\/strong><\/h6>\n
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6. Suggested Further Leading Questions<\/strong><\/h6>\n
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7. Examples\u00a0<\/strong><\/h6>\n